Fail to plan, plan to fail
I was talking about this setup with an FX trader who lives near me. We met up for a coffee this week and I was chatting with him about this setup on the USDTRY for this week. Having known the above you could have traded into the event. The obvious place was to short USD/TRY from the 100 and 200 1hr chart convergence. The reason that this was obvious was because we knew in advance that the central bank was going to raise interest rates. Therefore, we knew that USDTRY was going to be offered into today’s meeting.
Learn to anticipate the next move
Now, this trade has passed. However, another option is to enter USDTRY short a few minutes before the announcement and then pull your position on the short spike. The danger, of course, is that the CBRT surprise the markets. Remember that Justin reported that it needs a hike of 300bps. So, a miss from that figure may give another long USDTRY option. Manage your risk, so a surprise is not too painful, and that offers another bite, or two, at this cherry.