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EUR: Italy headwinds trump Donald’s Fed jawboning – ING

“Despite some stability in emerging markets and President Trump’s desire for restraint in Fed tightening, it seems too early to play for a weaker dollar,” ING economists argue.

Key quotes

“The US-China trade war shows no signs of slowing and USD/CNH moving towards 7.00 can easily unwind recent recoveries in EM. For this week our team are looking for another round of strong US data (Retail Sales on Monday and Industrial Production on Tuesday), which should keep US rates on the firm side.”

“In Europe, the highlight will be the Italian submission of its three-year budget plan and the response from Brussels. Plans for a 1.7% of GDP structural deficit for 2019/20/21 will not be greeted well by the European Commission and presumably will spark a war of words. We struggle to see the Italian government backing down anytime soon and could see the EUR under pressure again.”

“Perhaps the best hope for a EUR/USD recovery over the coming week is a Brexit deal. The EUR has been dragged around by Brexit developments and a deal ahead of the EU leaders’ dinner on Wednesday night could provide EUR/USD a brief fillip early in the week.”  

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