Technical Analysis

USDJPY break to new month high but fails.

Dips below trend line, but not running away.  Bulls and bears squirmishes

The USDJPY broke to a new month high (highest level since October 8th) at 113.38, but the break was not sustained and the buyers turned to sellers. 

The fall has also now taken the price below the upward sloping trend line, giving sellers more comfort in their position.  The underside of the trend line comes in at 113.26 currently. That level and the 113.32-38 are risk levels for shorts looking for a top and lower levels.

Having said that, it is not all “Sell. Sell. Sell”.  The 100 hour MA (blue line at 113.037) is a level that needs to be broken and remain broken. The lows today could only get to 1.13096. We currently are trading at 113.20 as I type.  

You can go either way with this.  Yes, the run to new highs failed after a 7 pip run higher. The 100 hour MA remains below the currently price.  So to me, it  suggests sellers may be wining a battle here and there, but until that 100 hour MA level can be broken, they are just a few little battles. There is room to go before they turn the momentum more to the sell side. 

For the buyers….take back the ground that you gave up including the trend line and the swing highs.  


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