Technical Analysis

Forex seasonals: Cable, if you want to go there

February is a bad month for the pound

The problem with seasonals is that they’re a secondary indicator, at best. If all else is equal, they can be effective. The problem is that all else is never equal. There’s always something going on that overshadows the trickle of positive/negative momentum from seasonal factors.

Cable is a great example. Over the past 10 year February is the worst month for GBP/USD. It’s fallen in three straight years and the weakness extends all the way back to 1999.

The problem for me is that you can’t take a seasonal trade on cable. I can make a case for GBP longs based on a positive Brexit outcome and/or technicals but I don’t want to add seasonals into the mix because they’re going to be swamped by whatever happens in parliament.

In any case, Feb is the worst month on the calendar for the pound so… now you know.


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