EUR/USD: Next trigger for a continued rebound will be a US–China trade deal – Danske Bank

Analysts from Danske Bank, forecast EUR/USD will move higher during 2019. They see the US-China trade deal as a trigger to the upside. 

Key Quotes: 

“If the eurozone outlook continues to deteriorate, the ECB will have to postpone the first hike further. This could happen in the absence of a trade deal near term and/or a no-deal Brexit.”

“Carry momentum for USD is fading on the back of Fed’s soft rhetoric, and even if another rate hike or two may be in the cards, we do not think this will be a major source of dollar support. We have for long been arguing that the next big move in EUR/USD is higher as monetary-policy divergence fades and the cross is undervalued. While a Fed that is now effectively on hold has been the first stage, we think the next trigger for a continued rebound will be a US–China trade deal: this should benefit the open and China-dependent eurozone economy (EUR positive). Whether the ECB will fuel a third stage in this rebound remains an open question, but a first hike looms as a key EUR-supportive factor.”

“For now, 1.15 should act as an attractor for the cross. We have left our forecast profile unchanged and continue to see EUR/USD at 1.15 in 1M, 1.17 in 3M, 1.20 in 6M and 1.25 in 12M.”

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