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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap. Dollar index rises to highest level since May 2017

Forex news for NY trading on April 24, 2019

In other markets:

  • Spot gold rose $3.78 or 0.30% at $1276.22
  • WTI crude oil fell -$-0.54 or -0.81% at $65.76. The crude oil inventories showed a large 5479K build. Although higher than expectation, the initial reaction was somewhat muted. Later the price started to move lower.  The high today at $66.43 was lower than the high from yesterday at $66.60. The contract is closing near the low for the day at $65.66. The 100 hour MA is catching up to the price at $65.15 (and moving higher). In the new day, a move below is still needed to tilt a small part of the bias to the downside.

 

  • Bitcoin gave back gains from yesterday and is trading down -148.23 at $5431. The 100 hour MA is at $5396.49. A break below that MA should solicit more selling

The USD was stronger today.   There was not a lot of fundamental news (like nothing actually), but technically there were some breaks in some of the major pairs.   Australia’s weaker CPI at the start of the day, was beneficial to the greenback. In Europe, German IFO was weakers as well (helping the USD). Finally, a “story line” was that buying of US debt instruments (yields lower), and stocks (Nasdaq reached a new intraday record today) has also given the dollar an underlying bid (after the close, Microsoft, Facebook, Visa, Paypal and Chipotle beat after the close, with the price action mixed (despite the beats).  

Looking at the snapshot of the major currencies the USD beat out the CHF as the strongest on the day. The aforementioned AUD was the weakest (the CPI data has traders thinking lower rates going forward). 

The % changes has the USD the strongest while the AUD was the weakest.

The CAD was more mixed after the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged but moved to a neutral policy stance. The USDCAD moved sharply higher on the news – reaching a high at 1.35203 -  but later during the press conference, Governor Poloz was less dovish in his commentary (or less concerned about falling off a cliff).  The USDCAD price moved back down to 1.3548 before rebounding to 1.3490 near the close.  Poloz  expects growth to pick up in the 2H of the year and inflation to hang around the 2% level.   That is still good enough for pair trading at the highest level since January 3rd.  The most recent high in March at 1.34667 is now a risk level going forward. Stay above keeps the bulls in control with the 1.3570 (a topside trend line on the daily) as the next target. The high for the year was also reached on the 1st day of the year at 1.3663.  

Some technical moves of importance:

  • The EURUSD fell below recent lows for 2019 at 1.1191, 1.1183 and then 1.1174. That took the price to the lowest level since June 2017.  The price scooted to a low of 1.11399 before rebounding a bit into the close (trades at 1.1152). It is hard to ignore a near two year low. It would take a move back above the old low at 1.1174 (and the other levels as well ) to turn the beat around.  Absent that, the 1.1117 level was the low from June 2017.  Below that level opens the pair for lower levels.  
  • For the GBPUSD there were two key technical developments. The first was on the corrective rally in the NY morning session, the pair stalled just ahead of the 200 day MA at 1.29628 (high reached 1.29627). The 2nd key development was the breaking of the 50% retracement of the move up from the 2019 low at 1.29163.  The pair moved to a low of 1.2886 before a late session minor correction. The price is trading at 1.2898 which is still below that 50% midpoint at 1.29163. 
  • The USDJPY shot higher in afternoon trading along with the rise in the USD. That push took the price above the 8+day trading range that confined the range between 111.64 to 112.159 and to a high of 112.389. Since then, however the price has rotated down to 112.11 and just below the old high at 112.15.  This par has been confined to such a narrow range, that the break higher should solicit buying interest just because of the non-trend. What may get in the way is the BOJ decision in the new day.  

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