Risk-On / Risk-Off is a concept that I talk about a lot but not many retail traders cater into their trades, perhaps it’s a concept that not many have heard of and even fewer understand. We have to understand when considering the concept of Risk-On / Risk-Off that the market is in a constant cycle between those two dispositions.
To explain a risk off market simply put is where traders don’t want to take any risk, they are panicking, scared and worried, essentially something is happening i.e. the market is crashing and they don’t want to be in the market. Subsequently they will dump any high yield/high risk currencies and flee to low risk low/low yield currencies such as JPY.
The reason for this is that the JPY and other similar currencies that are low yield and therefore low risk are stable on account of it being low yield the interest is practically0.0% as an advantage to that though this does make them a far more secure bet when the markets are overly volatile. Traders will flee to them as a good place to store their capital while the market is crashing/turbulent as it is very unlikely that anything is going to happen to such a low yield currency as the lower the yield the more secure a currency is.
Risk On is the opposite; this is when there is nothing concerning the market, traders are confident looking for high yield currencies to make the most profit they can in the shortest time possible. Such as the GBP, NZD and AUD; basically you can judge a risk on risk off currency by its interest rate. Lower interest currencies are typically risk off whilst higher interest currencies are typically risk on. To demonstrate my point it is in a way similar to fear and greed with risk off representing fear and risk on representing greed respectively.
I make use of this concept by essentially trading the news and using fundamental analysis, the news will tell you whether the market is risk on or risk off. Therefore if its risk off you want to flee to safe haven currencies such as the JPY if however if its risk on you’re going to want to look at investing in higher yield currencies and reap the rewards associated with those currencies.