Retail sales for 1Q estime 0.6% vs 1.7% in 4Q
In the new trading day, the NZ retail sales report for the 1Q will be released. The estimate is for a 0.6% gain. That comes after a 1.7% gain in the 4Q. That was the strongest quarter since 1Q 2017 (also 1.7%).
The price today, fell in tandem with the AUDUSD after RBAs Lowe spoke toward a potential easing at the next meeting. The odds of an ease in June is up to about 70% in June.
The RBNZ already cut once (at their meeting on May 8th). There is a 47% chance of cut at the August meeting and a 63% chance by November. It is not a sure thing but the bias remains a cut.
Anyway, the retail sales report today has the potential to goose the market.
Looking at the daily chart above, on the topside, the pair has a trend line that cuts across at 0.6552 level. Last week, on May 16, the pair stalled against that trend line and moved back down. Above that, the 0.6572-79 will be eyed. That area is home to a swing low at the beginnning of the year and was lows at the end of April as well (see yellow area and green numbered circles). The high from May 16th stalled in that area before moving lower.
Moves above the trend line at 0.6548 and the swing area at 0.6572-79 would give buyers something to hang more of a confident long on. Staying below, keeps the sellers more in control from the daily perpective.
On the downside on the daily chart, the swing low from October 26th at 0.64639 is the next obvious target, followed by the even more obvious 2018 low at 0.64241. Below that, and the open road will point toward a lower trend line on the daily at 0.6394 (and moving lower – see red circled numbers).
Drilling to the hourly chart, there are some closer levels of importance on the top and bottom side.
On the topsdie, a trend line at at 0.6528 and the 100 hour MA at 0.6534 are hurdles to get and stay above. The 200 hour MA is up at 0.62577.
ON the downside, a lower trend line cuts across at 0.6478 (and moving lower). A move below will next look toward the aforementioned 2018 lows at 0.6463 and 0.6424.