China will look to stimulate Earlier today, Xinhua reported that China will cut taxes and work the keep liquidity ample in the year ahead. “The external environment is complex and severe, and the economy is facing downward pressure,” Xinhua said, adding that the government would maintain its pro-active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy next
Analysts from Mizuho Bank, expect a slowdown in economic growth during 2019 on the back of the TRY depreciation. Key Quotes: “Turkey’s economic growth rate is expected to decline sharply in 2019 reflecting the Turkish lira’s plunge in summer 2018”. “The rise of inflation will squeeze real incomes, causing personal consumption to stall.” “Given the
What a mess The S&P 500 is at a fresh low, down 43 points to 2432. It’s quadruple witching and one of the final trading days of the year. Aside from the drop, what’s impressive is that volume yesterday and today has been very high. That could be a hint that there is some forced
Japanese Yen Talking Points USD/JPY bounces back from the session-low (110.93) as New York Fed President John Williams defends the recent decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 2.25% to 2.50%, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be on the cusp of flashing a bearish signal as it flirts with oversold territory.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve rose the Fed Funds rate and changed growth forecast. The FOMC meeting lead to lower bond yields, a weaker dollar and a global decline in equity markets, showing that investors are in the grip of a growth scare, explained analysts at BBVA. Key Quotes: “The FOMC projections are unambiguous: the
Next Stock Market Crash Prediction Talking Points: Does the return of volatility to equity markets suggest a stock market crash is on the horizon? The S&P 500 has climbed above the competition, but is its valuation deserved? The cases for continued growth are few, but present nonetheless If a stock market crash were to occur
EUR/USD, US Dollar Talking Points: – Next week brings the Christmas holiday and the week after brings New Years. This means that next week’s trade will likely be governed by low-liquidity conditions and given the volatile nature of some of the items in the headlines, this could be an especially dangerous time to hold weekend
MARKET DEVELOPMENT – USD to Post Worst Week in 3-Months USD: US Dollar is recouping some of its losses, however, the index remains on track for its worst week in 3-months as global growth fears begin to plague the USD. As such, the USD is once again losing out to the safe haven Japanese Yen.
Heavy dose of economic data and a government shutdown A busy day kicks off at the bottom of the hour with Canadian retail sales, the third look at Q3 US GDP, and the November preliminary durable goods orders report. Later we get eurozone consumer confidence, the Bank of Canada business outlook survey, the US PCE
• Risk-off mood helps the USD to recover a part of the post-FOMC downfall. • Bearish crude oil prices continue to undermine Loonie and remained supportive. • Traders now eye today’s US/Canadian macroeconomic releases for fresh impetus. The USD/CAD pair quickly reversed an early European session dip to sub-1.3500 level and climbed to fresh
TALKING POINTS – YEN, TRUMP, US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, UK GDP, POUND Yen may turn higher Washington DC turmoil stokes risk aversion Possible US government shutdown threatens fragile growth outlook UK Q3 GDP revision unlikely to mean much of the British Pound Most major currencies marked time in quiet Asia Pacific trade, with markets seemingly enjoying
Forex news for Asia trading Friday 21 December 2018 Gold is looking good, ‘needs to capture the market’s imagination again’ We got a taste of Christmas/New Year FX markets here in Asia today with only minor movement. Economic data was light on. Most were lower tier (generally not forex moving upon release) although we also
Asia Pacific Market Open – US Government Shutdown, US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen Global stocks accelerated selloff after Fed rate hike Wednesday: Asia, Europe and the US ended red US government shutdown concerns increased, further souring sentiment as USD fell with S&P 500 Anti-risk Japanese Yen looks past CPI data, may rise as Asia
Higher high over the last three days but may be running out of steam The USDCAD has been respecting a lower trend line over the last few weeks on the hourly chart, and also a topside trend line over the last few trading days. Today, the price moved above that higher trend line, and should
Europe followed the FOMC and a sea of red in US stocks with losses of its own on Thursday. The DAX index, which is now down 21.6% from its 52-week high, fell 1.4% to 10,611.10. Germany stocks were lower after the close on Thursday, as losses in the Technology, Food & Beverages and Retail sectors
Japanese Yen Talking Points USD/JPY remains under pressure even as the Federal Reserve delivers a 25bp rate-hike at its last meeting for 2018, and the pickup in volatility fuels a shift in retail sentiment, with recent price action raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as it extends the series of
USD/JPY at the lows of the day Is the Fed hiking as the economy stumbles? Looking at the Philly Fed business conditions report chart, it’s not exactly screaming that the economy is overheating and in need of rate hikes to cool it off. Needless to say, most markets are sending the same signals. One that’s
According to WiWO, citing EU sources, the US report on auto tariffs is said to be delayed until mid-January. It is worth reporting that the auto tariffs probe was launched in the last week of May and the US Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross had about 270 days or 9 months to finish up the report.
Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 20 December 2018 Re the FOMC: Early Asia began as markets were steadying somewhat after the response to the FOMC announcements and Powell’s presser. The first local catalyst was the release of Q3 GDP from New Zealand which came in at a big miss indeed (0.3% q/q against
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) concluded its 2-day December monetary policy review meeting and left the monetary policy settings unadjusted, holding rates at -10bps while maintaining 10yr JGB yield target at 0.00%. The BoJ vote was 8 to 1, leaving its pledge to buy JGBs unchanged so that its holdings increase at an annual pace of around 80 trln yen.
Asia Pacific Market Open – Fed, US Dollar, S&P 500, New Zealand Dollar, Japanese Yen, Nikkei 225 More hawkish Fed than what markets were anticipating shocked investors as the S&P 500 tumbled US Dollar rallied, but Euro & Yen stood their ground. New Zealand Dollar added to losses on GDP Asia Pacific markets bracing as
USD/JPY shakes off the decision USD/JPY has been volatile since the FOMC statement and that’s continued in the aftermath. The tone of heightened risk aversion hasn’t abated but USD/JPY has benefitted from slightly higher rates at the front end, underpinned by the Fed. The pair touched 112.64, the high of the day and up 40
Following its 2-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 2.25% – 2.5% in a widely expected decision. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is scheduled to deliver his comments on the monetary policy
Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is likely to shake up the near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar as the central bank is widely expected to increase the benchmark interest rate to a fresh threshold of 2.25% to 2.50%. Keep in mind, market participants
It’s Fed day Don’t expect big market moves until we get the verdict from the FOMC. The odds of a hike have fallen to 64%, leaving this as one of the most-uncertain outcomes in two years. Before the 2 pm ET FOMC decision, there are some economic indicators to watch. Up first is the US
According to the latest headlines floating on the wires, via Il Sole’s financial news agency – Radiocor, the European Commission is said to have decided to not open excessive debt procedures on Italy. The official confirmation is expected to come from the EU Commission’s upcoming press conference on Italian budget talks at 11:00 GMT.
Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 19 December 2018 The session ahead of an FOMC in Asia is often a subdued one but we did get some forex activity here today. USD/JPY was a sharp mover in the Tokyo morning, dropping from around 112.50 to under 112.20 (very briefly under there). A drop in US
The AUD/USD market is in the fifth wave of a bearish sequence that started at the July 2011 high of 1.1080 and could drop to 0.6432, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. Key quote At the very minimum, a wave 5 will typically retrace the full extent of its move since the bottom of wave
Asia Pacific Market Open – Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil, S&P 500, Asia Stocks, Fed S&P 500 fails to hold gains after open, market mood fell apart as traders anxiously await the Fed Canadian Dollar underperformed with sinking crude oil prices on US supply glut bets, sentiment Asia stocks may trade mixed ahead of Fed, oil