Forex news for North American trading on October 19, 2018: Markets: Gold up $1 to $1226 WTI crude up 63-cents to $69.28 S&P 500 down 1 point to 2767 US 10-year yields up 1.5 bps to 3.19% NZD leads, JPY lags Fundamentals were the main driver on Friday as US equity volatility calmed slightly. It
The S&P500 remains under pressure following the recent strong pullback down. The market rejected the 2,800.00 level and looks ready to test the current October low. The indicators remain weak and suggest further losses ahead. Support can be seen near 2,718.75 April 17 high and 2,710.00 October 11 low. S&P500 daily chart Spot rate:
Talking Points: – The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank will meet next week, the former of which will hike rates by 25-bps and the latter which will do nothing. – September Durable Goods and Advance Goods Trade Balance figures on Thursday will shape expectations for Friday’s Q4’18 US GDP report. – Retail
Moody’s Ratings recently announced its decision to cut Italy’s rating to Baa3 while keeping the outlook stable. Key quotes (via Reuters) A key driver for downgrade of Italy’s ratings to Baa3 is a material weakening in Italy’s fiscal strength. Italy’s ratings downgrade also due to negative implications for medium-term growth of stalling of plans for
Italy downgraded There was fear of a two-notch downgraded, which would have put it below the junk threshold. Instead, it gets a stable outlook, which means the chance of another downgrade in the near-term is low. They say the reason for the downgrade is a material weakening in Italy’s financial strength. The market is still
Home builder ETF down in 23 of past 25 trading days The combination of higher interest and higher construction costs are swamping any economic optimism in the home building segment. A big surprise this year has been the softness of the housing market. There is demand but low rents, high construction costs and high interest rates
Loonie on the losing end There was a major divergence this week in FX performance with the Australian and New Zealand dollars at the top of the chart and the Canadian dollar at the bottom. The loonie has been a frustrating trade as the USMCA agreement has failed to provide any kind of lift. The
Summarizing British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call with business leaders in the UK, “PM May told businesses that she had a very real sense from EU leaders that they wanted to reach a deal as soon as possible this autumn and said any Irish backstop would only be necessary for a temporary period,” May’s office
Cleveland Cliffs analyst loses his cool Cleveland Cliffs (formerly Cliffs Natural Resources) CEO Lourenco Goncalves has a way with words. Luke Kawa from Bloomberg has been tracking his outburst on quarterly earnings calls for years but he took it to another level today, evidently because he was frustrated by the market reaction (-7%) to his
Bounce from the bottom continues The kiwi is the top performer today while the yen lags. This is the classic pair for the risk trade, although I’d argue that’s a dangerous way to look at it given the housing fears in New Zealand and flat interest rate profile for the foreseeable future. What’s interesting is how well it’s held
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Italy budget vs Brexit Which is worse? Italy’s budget problem for the Euro or Britain’s N.Irish border problem for the GBP? This is what EURGBP is trying to decide at the moment as price coils, ready to spring. Will Carney addressing the market later be a catalyst? He will surely be concerned by the latest
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Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may do little to curb the recent advance in USD/CAD as the headline reading is expected to slow to 2.7% from 2.8% per annum in August. Signs of easing price pressures may keep the Bank of Canada (BoC) on the sidelines at
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GBPUSD falling off 100 EMA The 100 EMA (blue line) halted the rise of GBP/USD on the 15 minute chart. Stay below and we are looking at testing the daily lows again. With all the bearish sentiment around I would expect a second test break through the support level and head through 1.3000 ForexLive
The soft tone around the European currency triggered a sharp leg lower in the cross, forcing it to drop as low as the 128.30 area, or multi-week lows, on Thursday. A deeper retracement should see September’s low at 127.86 revisited. This is considered the latest defense of a test of 124.88, August’s low. On the
Weakening outlook for GBP The situation for Britain coming out of the EU Summit looks at putting further uncertainty ahead for the GBP. No hint of a deal and more problems than solutions. Admittedly the problem is the same one, what to do about the N. Irish Border, but the outlook for a solution is
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do
Seeking gain from Gold Gold makes sense again. US 10 year treasuries yields are rising and the Equity markets are falling with price falling further in the US last night in the S&P and Dow and Nasdaq. More declines look imminent and ominous. In this situation Gold regains it’s shine. Gold is a safe haven
China’s annualized GDP reading for 2018’s third quarter came in worse than expected, declining to 6.5% against the previous reading of 6.7%, missing the 6.6% projection. Key highlights This is the slowest pace of GDP growth for China since 2009’s first quarter, with the q/q figure coming in as-expected at 1.6%, versus the last reading
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Economists expect US economic policy towards China to get even tougher Coming Up! Title text for next article Via a Reuters poll of economists U.S. trade policy towards China over the next few years will become more confrontational, according to a majority same survey showed the Federal Reserve will raise rates three times next year
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